Weekly forecast update – Jun. 10, 2022
Forecast Update No significant changes – updated for spot markets. Milk Market Milk is seasonally rising as spring conditions spread across the country. At the same time, bottling is slowing and manufacturing plants are experiencing unplanned downtime, causing milk to back up quickly in parts of the country and discounts to take hold. Labor remains a weekly note – the Read more
Weekly forecast update – Jun 3, 2022
Forecast Update Overall global milk slowdowns and environmental policy are keeping the dairy products and milk price forecasts elevated through 2024. While a potential recession will become a weight on prices, it seems likely that environmental policy and higher feed prices could keep milk prices from returning to the teens over a prolonged period. Feed prices retreating from the $7/bushel Read more
Monthly Forecast Update – June 2022
Monthly Forecast Update Overall global milk slowdowns and environmental policy are keeping the dairy products and milk price forecasts elevated through 2024. While a potential recession will become a weight on prices, it seems likely that environmental policy and higher feed prices could keep milk prices from returning to the teens over a prolonged period. Feed prices retreating from the Read more
Weekly forecast update – May 30, 2022
Milk Market USDA released April milk production at 1% less than the previous year. That was quickly followed by New Zealand and Australia reporting April milk production down 5.6% and 6.6%, respectively. Global milk production continued to lag last year, supporting prices at above-average levels. Germany has still not reported March milk production figures yet. Weather, fewer cows, and retirements Read more
Weekly forecast update – May 20, 2022
Forecast updates Adjusted butter prices – removing last week’s reduction. Returned to forecast from earlier in the month. Some fall months are still less than the first forecast of May. Reports indicate some larger US butter processors are short products and currently sourcing from the CME. That resulted in substantially higher prices over the last week. That could keep upward Read more
Weekly forecast update – May 13, 2022
Forecast updates Reduced the fall butter prices. Based on current consumption rates and prospects for fewer exports during 2H 2022 – it appears feasible that July 2022 stocks could approach 300 million pounds – a level that has historically caused butter prices to level off. Still, carry-out stocks could be very low this year if trends continue – that could Read more
Weekly forecast update – May 5, 2022
Forecast updates Adjusted whey prices lower NDPSR whey prices could take weeks to decline. Reviewed western and central mostly prices, reduced Q2 and Q3 prices to low 60s-upper 50s. Given drops in European prices and slower exports, it could take that price level to entice buyers back to the product. Reformulation could take time to reincorporate the product into rations. Read more
Monthly Forecast Update – May 2022
Monthly forecast updates Adjusted cheese prices lower through the first half of 2022. Reduced the Q2 forecast, but it remains above-average Some concerns slowing retail sales could be problematic for demand. IRI data for the week ending 4/17 has cheese snack kits volumes up 18.9% compared to a year ago levels – 25 million pounds. Natural and processed cheese were Read more
Weekly forecast update – Apr. 29, 2022
Forecast updates Performed a monthly recalibration of the model based on actual price releases and the April averages. Adjusted cheese. Reduced the Q2 forecast remains above-average but less as more cheese may be available to the spot markets during Q2. Increased the Q3/Q4 outlook slightly and reduced the block-barrel spread. The block-barrel spread remains limited – it could widen by Read more
Weekly forecast update – Apr. 22, 2022
Forecast updates Updated Q2 outlook based on spot market fluctuations and Global Dairy Trade (GDT) results this week. Cheese markets are lower, but prices, for a time, could stay elevated in the early May pricing period (final week of April). Anecdotal reports suggest the market is balanced to modestly over-supplied. Still, the impact on the spot price appears to be Read more