Monthly forecast update – Apr. 2022
This month’s forecast is moving higher again. Milk production remains behind last year, and strong demand with widespread concerns of food scarcity has prompted a forecast with well-above-average prices for 2022. Additionally, Ceres increased the 2023 forecast during the first half of the year as it could be difficult for prices to settle immediately. The 2024 outlook remains similar to Read more
Weekly forecast update – Apr. 1, 2022
Forecast updates Based on reports reflecting mounting concerns about food scarcity, China locked down Shanghai this week, resulting in empty store shelves as people stocked up on food. Increased the cheese and butter forecast. Higher overseas’ prices and demand could result in more significant export volumes this year. With milk production well behind last year’s pace and demand still robust, Read more
Weekly forecast update – Mar. 25, 2022
Forecast updates No significant changes to the forecast this week – for cheese, butter, and NDM. Adjusted for spot market impacts. Adjusted buttermilk and WPC prices higher based on market trends. Reduced whey prices Q2 to Q3 forward. Fluid Milk Market USDA announced the April 2022 advanced Class I base this week at $24.38/cwt – up $1.50 compared to March. Read more
Weekly forecast update – Mar. 18, 2022
Fluid Milk Market It’s officially spring this weekend, and the flush is underway. Reports indicate that milk is rising. In the west, several manufacturers are reporting that milk is challenging capacity with little ability to process additional milk. In part, there is more milk and likely more cows, but some may be slower bottling as spring break rolls across the Read more
Weekly forecast update – Mar. 11, 2022
Forecast updates No significant changes to the forecast this week – adjustments to MAR for spot markets. Prices remain elevated, especially Class II and IV. Adjusted 1H 2022 buttermilk powder prices. Made modest adjustments to whey prices to better reflect reported prices. Fluid Milk Market The spring flush is underway with several states reporting seasonally more milk than the previous Read more
Weekly forecast update – Mar. 4, 2022
Given the unprecedented events and uncertainty surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ceres made significant upward revisions in this month’s forecast, resulting in the highest forecast issued to date. If trends continue, milk and dairy product prices could set new records or be the highest in history. The story remains a deficit market with constrained supply, compared to demand causing prices Read more
Monthly Forecast Update – Mar. 2022
Given the unprecedented events and uncertainty surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ceres made significant upward revisions in this month’s forecast, resulting in the highest forecast issued to date. If trends continue, milk and dairy product prices could set new records or be some of the highest in history. The story remains a deficit market with constrained supply, compared to demand Read more
Weekly forecast update – Feb. 25, 2022
Forecast updates Adjusted NDM and buttermilk prices higher. Maintained forecast for butter and cheese. Absent carry, it seems likely, for now, butter manufacturers could sell spot butter at the CME to slow price increases. That could change in the week ahead of Easter if cream competition increases. Cheese demand remains strong, but production is starting to increase. Similar to butter, Read more
Weekly forecast update – Feb. 18, 2022
Forecast updates No significant changes to the forecast this week – adjustments to FEB and MAR for spot markets. A higher GDT this week lifted prices across the board, but by the end of the week, markets settled off of recent highs. Cheese is still reported as available to the markets and not indicative of current price levels – suggesting Read more
Weekly forecast update – Feb. 11, 2022
Forecast updates Despite higher markets – no significant changes to the forecast this week. Reports suggest futures markets lifted on outside money running to commodity markets – including a spillover into dairy. That activity drove markets higher throughout the week with few changes in fundamental data. CME NDM has taken the top spot for pricing – absent a commensurate move Read more