Weekly forecast update, Nov. 5, 2021
Forecast updates For this forecast, modified outlook for the following products: Reduced year-end Cheddar block and barrel prices due to a recent decline in spot markets. Increased whey prices through end of year. Consistent exports and lower output, and stronger WPC/WPI demand continue to keep whey stocks limited. That has lifted the Class IV milk price above the Class III Read more
Weekly forecast update, Oct. 29, 2022
Forecast updates • For this forecast, modified outlook for the following products: o Reduced NDM slightly – kept prices in the upper 150s, pulled back from 160s forecast. o Reduced whey – kept prices in the mid-to-upper-50s o No significant change to the other product outlook. o Some reduction in the Class III milk price has moved Class IV to Read more
Weekly forecast update, Oct. 22, 2021
Forecast updates Given the severity of the global supply chain issues, it appears likely it will extend into 2022 and could worsen before it gets better. With shipping between China and the West Coast now taking 71 days, up from 40 last year, there are concerns that delays and slowing ocean transportation could cause safety stocks to increase. Further, the Read more
Weekly forecast update, Oct. 15, 2021
Forecast updates The Darigold – Caldwell fire this week caused NDM prices to increase as brokers bid markets higher. Butter moved up for a few days. The forecast is higher due to reduced production capacity for an extended period as well as diminishing global stockpiles of products. Several issues could become more substantial in Q1 2022 – higher energy, food, Read more
Weekly forecast update, Oct. 8, 2021
Forecast updates Modest changes to the forecast. Due to spot price changes, adjusted October and November prices; Made additional changes to whey and NDM through the end of the year. Fluid Milk Market Throughout the country, milk output from the farm is varied. Some regions report improvements as the heat and humidity abate, while others indicate that milk and components Read more
Monthly Forecast Update – Oct. 2021
Forecast updates Demand remains robust, exports are moving overseas and global milk production is slowing – that could support 2022 prices as there are more opportunities for US exports assuming shipping issues are no worse than this year. Milk supply declines from Europe and the potential for slower-than-expected Oceania output could strain current supplies as stocks are limited should demand Read more
Weekly forecast update, Oct. 1, 2021
Forecast updates Increased Q4 CME barrel cheese forecast Raised prices based on recent higher spot trade; No substantial change to the block forecast for Q4. Increased the 2022 forward cheese outlook – current demand and trends of flatter EU milk production could provide more opportunities for US cheese exports. Kept 2022 near 2021 forecast 1H – increased 2H Raised 2023 Read more
Weekly forecast update, Sept. 24, 2021
Forecast updates Increased Q4 CME barrel cheese forecast Raised prices based on recent higher spot trade; Lifted blocks in October also; That raised the Class III milk forecast. Increased the Q4 2021 whey forecast Nearby WPC demand strength and seasonally lower production could keep prices near current levels through early 2022. Spot prices remain elevated based on strong demand from Read more
Weekly forecast update, Sept. 17, 2021
Forecast updates Increased NDM forecast for all years Slowing output from the United States and Europe could lift prices; So far, China has not slowed demand; Stocks are lower than in recent years – which provides less of a buffer to supply-side events. Still, prices could range from upper teens to low 130s – more than that could reduce demand Read more
Weekly forecast updates, Sept. 10, 2021
Forecast updates Increased cheese forecast in 2022 Still assume a seasonal decline, but given lower whey prices that could reduce the Class III value – expect more exports given lower prices and potential for more USDA orders to support the Class III milk price Reduced the 2022 whey forecast for Q1 and Q2 Deteriorating pork margins and historic losses for Read more