Weekly forecast update, August 27, 2021
Forecast updates Reduced CME prices for butter, Cheddar barrels through Q1 2022. No change to whey prices this week. Adjusted CME barrels for 2021 lower. Adjusted CME and DMN for current markets and price relationships (decreased Central and increased West). No significant changes to CME blocks. Spot adjustments for butter. Fluid Milk Market The story remains re-stocking of school milk Read more
Weekly forecast update, August 20, 2021
Forecast updates Reduced CME prices for butter, Cheddar blocks and barrels through Q1 2022. Reduced barrels based on off-season approaching and prices unable to sustain higher prices. Still expect Cheddar prices to lift in September and November, but price declines in October and November could be larger given past trends. Butter stocks remain elevated and the trend appears in place Read more
Weekly forecast update, August 13, 2021
Forecast updates • Adjusted AUG/SEP prices based on spot markets. o Adjusted Western Mostly NDM prices lower – more adjustments through 2021. o Adjusted CME spot prices for AUG – reduced barrel prices causing a wider spread; left blocks at previous values. o Adjusted AUG butter, but no further adjustments. o No changes to whey, CBM, or HH NDM. Fluid Read more
Weekly forecast update, 080621
Forecast updates Increased CME butter, block, and barrel price expectations. USDA returned with fluid and cheese Section 32 bids. The volumes were relatively small for Cheddar cheese, but it may suggest that the USDA could support overall milk prices. Before the announcement, SEP21 futures were poised to move lower with a possibility of dropping below $16/cwt. As has been the Read more
Weekly forecast update, 073021
Forecast updates Reduced block and barrel cheese forecast through 2022. While domestic markets have been able to absorb a lot of the new production from Michigan, unless exports increase, the market could tend toward oversupplied for a time. Fewer USDA orders – effectively a reset to 2018 spending levels, could put more pressure on exports to keep markets balanced. Seasonally Read more
Weekly forecast update July 23, 2021
Fluid Milk Market USDA announced the August Class I price this week at $16.90/cwt, which was 52¢ less than July on lower Class III values. Class II advanced skim is $10.37 for August. In July, weaker spot markets caused August’s advanced price to fall. Anecdotal reports from across the country indicate the demand for bottling plants is low. Many are Read more
Weekly forecast update July 16, 2021
Forecast updates Adjusted this week’s cheese forecast lower through the end of the year for most products. While 640# blocks are in short supply, 40# blocks and barrels are readily available to the market. Fewer USDA orders may be causing the imbalance. Still expect prices to increase until the end of the year as demand increases and production slows. US Read more
Weekly forecast update, July 9, 2021
Forecast updates No significant changes to this week’s forecast. Updated July and August for spot market changes. Dairy product price changes also modified milk prices. Fluid Milk Market Summer weather is heating up, and milk is subsiding as it typically does post-July 4 holiday. That is causing milk to move from north to south on the East Coast; it also Read more
Weekly forecast update, July 2, 2021
Forecast updates At the mid-point of the year, milk production is still running above last year’s levels, resulting in more dairy product production. Exports remain elevated compared to the previous year, but USDA’s pandemic-driven buying is slowing. Foodservice orders are recovering, and that is offsetting slower retail sales. Data is competing, suggesting that prices could still recover into the second Read more
Monthly forecast update – July 2021
At the mid-point of the year, milk production is still running above last year’s levels and that is resulting in more dairy product production. Exports remain elevated compared to last year, but USDA’s pandemic-driven buying is slowing. Foodservice orders are recovering and that is offsetting slower retail sales. Data is competing suggesting that prices could still recover into the second Read more