Weekly forecast update – Mar. 26, 2021
Forecast updates Adjust prices for spot markets. Increased NDM and whey prices for the rest of the year given strong demand from China that could support markets. In turn that increased the Class I and II skim solids. Increased 2H 2021 butter prices on expectations that stronger overseas demand and few concentrated milkfat and anhydrous milkfat imports could work to Read more
Weekly forecast update – Mar. 19, 2021
Forecast updates Eased the remainder of March and April forecasts for spot prices. Adjusted Q2 NDM and butter prices lower. All changes impacted milk prices accordingly. 2H 2021 forecast forward remained unchanged. Fluid Milk Market This week USDA’s AMS announced the advanced April Class I base milk price at $15.51, which was 31¢ more than March. The skim price declined Read more
Weekly forecast update – March 12, 2021
Forecast updates China’s demand is the primary focus of markets – should it move higher, it could lift milk powder prices and Class I and II milk solids. The forecast contemplates higher milk powder and related skim prices for the second half of the year. That said, accelerating demand from China could lift prices further. The converse is also true. Read more
Weekly forecast update – March 5
Forecast updates Demand from China surprised global markets as GDT leaped higher this week. There are consistent parallels with the price run from 2013 and 2014. For now, we are keeping the forecast well short of those lofty levels; however, we do foresee a significant price shift higher – especially for milk and whey powders. There could be some delays Read more
Forecast update – February 26, 2021
Forecast updates Additional adjustments this week Increased dry products, including whey, WPC, and NDM. Demand from SE Asia and predictions of a higher GDT could lift nearby prices modestly. Maintained butter and cheese forecasts this week. The adjustments, in turn, adjusted milk prices. Fluid Milk Market Markets are starting to settle after the winter weather upheaval over the past few Read more
Weekly forecast update – February 19, 2021
Forecast updates Additional adjustments this week Increased dry products, including whey, WPC, and NDM. Given the demand from China, prices could remain higher through the spring months. Increased butter for the remainder of February – but left lower prices post-Easter and pre-ice cream season. Adjusted Q3 NDM prices higher – demand could remain strong through the duration of the year. Read more
Weekly forecast update – February 12, 2021
Forecast updates Few, but significant changes this week. Adjusted NDM forecast for the second half of the year higher. Based on reduced global stockpiles of milk powders. China appears to have consumed its 2020 stockpile of milk powders. Given steady demand that could support prices during the second half of the year. Increased high-heat NDM price forecast. Given more milk Read more
Weekly forecast update – February 5, 2021
Forecast updates Reduced 1H 2021 CME block and barrel forecasts. Despite Friday’s uptick, there is more cheese, and demand will seasonally abate after Super Bowl. Cheese capacity continues to expand. Reduced 1H 2021 butter forecast. There is a lot of butter in the warehouses, and demand is seasonally lower. While there are prospects for demand summer forward – for now, Read more
Weekly forecast update – January 29, 2021
Forecast updates Reduced 1H 2021 CME block and barrel forecasts. There could be upticks related to the USDA Section 32 and food-box programs; however, it seems that widely available cheese and milk could keep upward price movement limited and with spikes that do not rise as far and do not last as long. USDA will likely provide a level of Read more
Weekly forecast update – January 22, 2021
Forecast updates Adjusted nearby prices – reducing expectations for CME cheese and butter through March due to changes in the USDA food-box program. Reduced Q2 cheese and butter prices given expectations of higher milk production at that time against slow restaurant sales. Adjusted JAN NDM prices up a few cents but reduced FEB and MAR. In turn, these adjustments recalibrated Read more