Monthly Forecast Update – February 2021
This forecast reflects lower price expectations for the first half of 2021 as the pandemic recovery is still forecast late Q2 that could easily extend into 2021. At the same time, US milk production continues to expand on more cows and higher output-per-cow. While Cheddar markets started to move higher again on Friday, there is little news to support traders’ Read more
Monthly Forecast Update – January 2021
On January 4, USDA announced the fifth round of the Farms-to-Families food box program https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2021/01/04/usda-announces-continuation-farmers-families-food-box-program-fifth. According to the press release, USDA will issue awards by January 19 with deliveries through the end of April. That would make this program similar in size and scope to the September awards with $1.5 billion spread over three months. Like the fourth round, the Read more
Weekly Forecast Update Jan. 22, 2021
Forecast updates Adjusted nearby prices – reducing expectations for CME cheese and butter through March due to changes in the USDA food-box program. Reduced Q2 cheese and butter prices given expectations of higher milk production at that time agains…
Weekly forecast update – January 15, 2021
Forecast updates Reduced the Q1 block and barrel forecast – closer to the forecast issued at the beginning of the year. While USDA issued several purchases, it seems that there is plenty of cheese and that there may be more than could head to the CM…
Weekly Forecast Update – January 8, 2021
Forecast Updates Increased cheese, whey, and NDM prices Q1 2021. Reduced 1H 2021 butter forecast. The food-box program is supportive to cheese prices through February; however, butter remains under pressure with food-boxes to provide price support, …
Weekly Forecast Update – January 1, 2021
Please see the revised weekly forecast. After further contemplating the following – Ceres increased the Q1 2021 block and barrel cheese price forecast. On January 4, USDA announced the fifth round of the Farms-to-Families food box program…
Weekly Forecast Update December 25, 2020
Forecast Updates Increased cheese, whey, butter, and NDM prices Q1 2021. Increased cheese and butter forecast based on the announcement the president signed the stimulus package, and that could translate into more USDA buying during the JAN-MAR pric…
Weekly Forecast Update December 18, 2020
Forecast Updates Modest adjustments to DEC-20 and Q1 2021 prices for spot market changes. Increased whey prices through Q1 2021. No other significant changes this week. Fluid Milk Market USDA confirmed there is plenty of milk around the United State…
Weekly Forecast Update – December 11, 2020
Forecast Updates Modest adjustments to DEC-20 and Q1 2021 prices for spot market changes. No other significant changes this week. Fluid Milk Market Seasonally milk is past its low-point, and output is rising. Several regions are reporting significan…
Weekly Forecast Update – December 4, 2020
Forecast Updates Reduced Dec-20 Class III milk forecast based on declines last month. Reduced Q1 and Q2 Class III milk forecast expectations of fewer government orders, more milk headed to cheese, and anticipating slowing foodservice demand Q4 20 to…