Weekly forecast – July 28, 2023
Forecast updates Cheese: Increased block prices through the end of the year. Increased barrels modestly – but kept the block-barrel spread. That widened the block-barrel spread through the end of the year. Butter Increased butter price through November based on higher spot price. There could be more upside during the holiday demand period – 10 to 25 cents. NDM Adjusted Read more
Weekly forecast – July 21, 2023
Forecast updates Cheese: Increased block prices through the end of the year, given the rapid appreciation this week. Left barrels due to higher rates of off-spec, processed cheese solids entering the market during plant start-ups. That widened the block-barrel spread through the end of the year. Increased January 2024 cheese price – that is the final month of the season Read more
Weekly forecast – July 14, 2023
Forecast updates Cheese: Adjusted CME barrels for spot markets. No other significant changes to the 2023 forecast. Butter Modest increase to butter price forecast for July through November to accommodate higher spot markets. Expected butter prices to rise and for output to fall during 2H 2023 to support prices. NDM Adjusted Q3 NDM prices – lifting prices as spot and Read more
Weekly forecast update – July 7, 2023
Forecast updates Cheese: No change to this week’s forecast. While Thursday was one of the busiest single-day trading activity for barrels – there was good buying interest from primarily one seller. Expectations are for exports to pick up – data suggests the export imbalance created additional pressure at the CME through Q2. Production slowed and the new cheese plants are Read more
Weekly forecast – June 30, 2023
Forecast updates While dairy data looks adequate through the year’s first half, market sentiment remains bearish. Supply has not changed dramatically year-to-year. Markets are more focused on what could be a demand issue or a headwind facing the economy. Additionally, US exports slowed considerably – that may be the primary culprit behind the Q2 market imbalance, especially for cheese markets. Read more
Monthly forecast – July 2023
Forecast updates While dairy data looks adequate through the year’s first half, market sentiment remains bearish. Supply has not changed dramatically year-to-year. Markets are more focused on what could be a demand issue or a headwind facing the economy. Additionally, US exports slowed considerably – that may be the primary culprit behind the Q2 market imbalance, especially for cheese markets. Read more
Weekly forecast – June 23, 2023
Forecast updates There were a few changes to this week’s forecast. Updated June 2023 prices based on spot markets Adjusted some NDM prices lower through mid-Q2 2023. While prices could lift until milk supplies slow, markets could continue to seek discounts. Corrected 2024 price ratios – Central NDM was too high. Reduced JUL23 butter forecast. Given modestly higher stocks in Read more
Weekly forecast – June 16, 2023
Forecast updates There were a few changes to this week’s forecast. Updated June 2023 prices based on spot markets Modified Q2 2023 NDM and SCBM prices lower. Milk Market This week some heat and humidity in the Southwest and Southeast reportedly curbed output, with some farms in Texas noting considerably lower production. Additionally, two new cheese plants are starting to Read more
Weekly forecast – June 9, 2023
Forecast updates There were a few changes to this week’s forecast. Updated June 2023 prices based on spot markets Adjusted 2024 Cheddar blocks and barrel prices 5-10 higher. Milk Market The peak production may have passed, but plenty of milk is floating around, causing intermittent dumping and persistent discounts. Processors are still working through lower seasonal bottling demand – which Read more
Weekly forecast – June 2, 2023
Forecast updates This month’s data suggests that the difference between the Class III and IV prices could be substantial for the foreseeable future. Typically, these gaps don’t last that long – meaning Class IV would decline or Class III increase. The latter appears more realistic as butter prices appear well supported, and declining supplies could cause NDM/SMP prices to rise. Read more