Weekly forecast – May 19, 2023
Forecast updates Again, news was limited this week but there were some changes to the forecast due to spot markets. No change to the butter forecast Decreased cheese prices through the end of the year. This could be a debatable change. Current prices should make US cheese highly competitive in export markets; however, processors appear to have fewer commitments domestically Read more
Weekly forecast – May 12, 2023
Forecast updates This week there was little new data and spot market performance was consistent. That said, there are some notable changes to this week’s forecast. Increased CME/NDPSR butter through 2023. Commercial disappearance continues to perform well with sizeable increases estimated for March. As milk moves to vats that will slow cream production and ultimately butter output in Central state Read more
Weekly forecast – May 5, 2023
Forecast updates No significant updates to the forecast this week. Raised butter due to reports that more bulk products priced from NDPSR vs. CME this year. Milk Market Milk is seasonally rising, creating issues as plants have planned and unplanned downtime. That can be somewhat problematic for production as the cows need more time to transition from one season to Read more
Monthly Forecast – May 2023
Forecast updates Worries about inflation and recession seem to be influencing markets today – some believe consumers will continue to ration purchases and seek value implying higher prices may be met with reduced demand. IRI scan data seems to support sentiment – velocity slows when prices or promotions decrease. But, one sector with significant inflation is travel, which is due Read more
Weekly forecast – Apr. 28, 2023
Forecast updates Worries about inflation and recession seem to be influencing markets today – some believe consumers will continue to ration purchases and seek value implying higher prices may be met with reduced demand. IRI scan data seems to support sentiment – velocity slows when prices or promotions decrease. But, one sector with significant inflation is travel, which is due Read more
Weekly forecast – April 21, 2023
Forecast updates Milk production gains are present but slowing – that could impact markets should demand increase later this year. Reports from Europe indicate some cooperatives are reducing discounts as they forecast milk production declines could compromise supply. In the United States, slowing West Coast milk production could limit NDM and butter once the spring flush passes. Colder weather stalled Read more
Weekly forecast – Apr. 16, 2023
Forecast updates CME markets pulled back this week on little new information. There are some reports that international demand slowed and that there was an easing domestically also. That has caused prices to retreat. Adjusted the Q2 forecast lower. No significant changes to cheese, butter, and NDM through the year’s second half. Revised whey, WPC, and lactose prices lower as Read more
Weekly forecast – Apr. 7, 2023
Forecast updates On the horizon, there are signs of better demand and a shift toward pre-pandemic trends, including travel and experience spending, that could lift food service demand. For this forecast, we have contemplated those factors and more demand from China and India that could tighten supply quickly over the summer months. Globally, stockpiles of dairy products are higher than Read more
Monthly Forecast Update – April 2023
On the horizon, there are signs of better demand and a shift toward pre-pandemic trends, including travel and experience spending, that could lift food service demand. For this forecast, we have contemplated those factors and more demand from China and India that could tighten supply quickly over the summer months. Globally, stockpiles of dairy products are higher than last year, Read more
Weekly forecast – Mar. 31, 2023
Forecast updates Increased the 2H 2023 forecast for most products based on indications that foodservice and export demand could return to markets later this year. That could cause prices to recover toward the start of summer with expectations that prices could continue to increase as China’s demand returns to markets. A significant recession could impact this forecast by taking prices Read more