Weekly forecast – Mar. 17, 2023
Forecast updates Adjusted 2023 forecast based on spot modifications Increased the March block and barrel average – but kept April to June unchanged. Raised 2H 2023 prices as it appears the market expects new cheese capacity, but it may be slow to materialize. Demand prospects remain positive – absent new cheese that could cause markets to lift. Given recent increases Read more
Weekly forecast – Mar. 10, 2023
Forecast updates Modest changes to Q1/Q2 2023 prices based on spot markets. Reduced March/April block cheese price. Adjusted barrels in April. Adjusted the MAR23 butter price up slightly based on spot markets. Adjusted NDM prices lower – high-heat also. Adjusted Central whey prices up and WPC prices lower. No significant changes to later periods. Milk Market Anecdotal reports indicate there Read more
Weekly forecast – Mar. 3, 2023
Forecast updates Recalibrated the monthly forecast. Early 2023 has been marked by higher-than-average milk and dairy product prices; however, data is starting to suggest that stocks are mounting globally as mounting supplies are met with weaker demand. News indicates that China’s economy is on the mend, which could imply a post-Covid demand boost similar to the United States, Europe, and Read more
Monthly Forecast Update – March 2023
Recalibrated the monthly forecast. Early 2023 has been marked by higher-than-average milk and dairy product prices; however, data is starting to suggest that stocks are mounting globally as mounting supplies are met with weaker demand. News indicates that China’s economy is on the mend, which could imply a post-Covid demand boost similar to the United States, Europe, and India when Read more
Weekly forecast update – Feb. 24, 2023
Forecast updates No significant changes to the forecast this week other than adjusting for spot market moves. Increases whey modestly – Dairy Market News price series remain elevated; however, recent 39-cent NDPSR prices could pull down on March prices if they persist. Adjusted NDM slightly higher through Q1-Q2 – specifically western prices. No major changes to butter or cheese. Milk Read more
Weekly forecast update – Feb. 17, 2023
Forecast updates Data from Europe caused prices to bottom and lift; however, milk production continues to expand, and demand, while recovering, is still months away from levels that can absorb current milk production. There is more uncertainty surrounding New Zealand’s end of 2022/23 season due to the impacts of Typhoon Gabrielle. Just as dairies recovered from saturating rains in late Read more
Weekly forecast update – Feb. 10, 2023
Forecast updates Improving European outlook is lifting prices this week. Adjusted the forecast for spot markets. It seems too early to suggest a full recovery – therefore, the remainder of the 2023 forecast was left unchanged this week. Milk will need to slow down or demand increase to indicate prices should increase again. Milk Market Milk reports remain consistent – Read more
Weekly forecast update – Feb. 3, 2023
Forecast updates Spot prices are increasing as news from Europe indicates that processors are more comfortable with stocks and have discontinued distressed product sales. In those same reports, European processors are reporting higher-than-expected milk intake, which undermines the first statement or at least makes it relative. For now, European sellers are pausing to reassess current demand compared to milk intake. Read more
Monthly Forecast – February 2023
Spot prices are increasing as news from Europe indicates that processors are more comfortable with stocks and have discontinued distressed product sales. In those same reports, European processors are reporting higher-than-expected milk intake, which undermines the first statement or at least makes it relative. For now, European sellers are pausing to reassess current demand compared to milk intake. That doesn’t Read more
Weekly forecast update – Jan. 27, 2023
Forecast updates Reduced most product prices this week, dropping powder prices as those markets show more weakness than other markets. While milk output gains slowed compared to last year, there is still sufficient milk to meet current demand and the cheese demand season ends in a few weeks. Reduced the CME block and barrel prices. There are reports of lower Read more