Weekly forecast update – Jan. 6, 2023
Forecast updates Global markets continue to decline as demand slows further and milk production rises. In typical fashion, higher dairy product prices that encourage dairy producers to increase output are the same prices that cause consumers to reduce purchases. Early 2023 appears to be a reset period with prices headed lower – at least through the year’s first half. Europe Read more
Monthly Forecast – January 2023
Global markets continue to decline as demand slows further and milk production rises. In typical fashion, higher dairy product prices that encourage dairy producers to increase output are the same prices that cause consumers to reduce purchases. Early 2023 appears to be a reset period with prices headed lower – at least through the year’s first half. Europe seems to Read more
Weekly forecast update – Dec. 23, 2022
Forecast updates Given weaker global news and evidence, spending is starting to slow, adjusted forecasts lower this week. The lower milk prices and weaker demand could result in deteriorating on-farm margins in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a mid-year slowdown in output. For now, it appears output could collide with weaker demand resulting in a temporary surplus that could weigh Read more
Weekly forecast update – Dec. 16, 2022
Forecast updates Most spot markets moved lower this week as milk supply continues to lift and worries over a global recession in early 2023 mount. CME butter markets remained unusually high this week, given that demand is nearly complete and cream is widely available to churn. Reduced the near-term butter markets expecting prices to overcorrect in the coming weeks. Cheese Read more
Weekly forecast update – Dec. 9, 2022
Forecast updates There were no significant changes to the forecast this week – only modest changes related to the spot markets. Market trends discussed last week persist. Butter markets still appear poised to decline. There was more negative sentiment toward the end of the week as more news from Europe suggests the region is dropping prices quickly to find overseas’ Read more
Weekly forecast update – Dec. 2, 2022
Forecast updates One of the most significant considerations for this forecast is if and when China will return to markets. Historically, when China’s demand eases, no other nation or group of countries can absorb that lost volume – it appears 2022 may be no different. So far, milk production from major exporting regions lagged last year, with the United States Read more
Monthly Forecast – December 2022
Forecast updates One of the most significant considerations for this forecast is if and when China will return to markets. Historically, when China’s demand eases, no other nation or group of countries can absorb that lost volume – it appears 2022 may be no different. So far, milk production from major exporting regions lagged last year, with the United States Read more
Weekly forecast update – Nov. 25, 2022
Forecast updates Adjusted Q1 2023 cheese prices higher lower; Adjusted NOV 2022 for spot market adjustments; Adjusted 1H 2023 buttermilk prices lower. Milk Market Milk moved to manufacturing plants this week during the Thanksgiving holiday. On Monday, milk should return to bottling for the final weeks of the holiday season, but peak demand is likely behind markets. But, much more Read more
Weekly forecast update – Nov. 18, 2022
Forecast updates Adjusted Q1 2023 cheese prices higher modestly higher and widened block-barrel spread; Adjusted NOV 2022 for spot market adjustments; Adjusted some 1H 2023 butter prices lower. Milk Market This week bottling orders picked up ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, but milk and cream will be moving back to manufacturing next week with the extended holiday period. Most expect Read more
Weekly forecast update – Nov. 11, 2022
Forecast updates Adjusted Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 cheese prices higher due to this week’s USDA announcement (see Milk Market for explanation); Adjusted NOV 2022 for spot market adjustments; Reduced 2024-2025 NDM forecasts. Adjusted 2023 Central and Western mostly modestly lower than last week’s forecast. Milk Market USDA announced that it would begin pre-qualifying vendors for its Agriculture Feeds Kids Read more