Weekly forecast update – Oct. 28, 2022
Forecast updates Markets appear to be easing ahead of the holidays – some faster than others. While this forecaster does not believe that will result in significantly lower prices from last week, it indicates that prices could be less than this year, but well above the five-year average. Ceres assumes that if milk prices were to drop below $18/cwt USDA Read more
Weekly forecast update – Oct. 21, 2022
Forecast updates Bearish US September milk production did little to change market sentiment this week. While markets could be due for a correction, a level step lower into 2023 could be difficult as milk supply prospects remain precarious globally. That said, milk supply contraction never happens immediately, and given current milk prices, it may take into Q2/Q3 2023 before a Read more
Weekly forecast update – Oct. 14, 2022
Forecast updates Bearish sentiment rolled through markets as news that inflation is far from under control. Reports circulated that in September, supermarket food purchases were 13%, and food away from home was up 8.5% more expensive than last year. Dairy was 15.9% more than a year ago. The 20-year historical average is 1.7%. Add to that expectations of further 0.75% Read more
Weekly Forecast Update – Oct. 7, 2022
Forecast Update Modified cheese forecasts Continued to reduce the block-barrel spread in 2023. Increased 2023 Q2 forward forecast, given stronger demand from Mexico and South Korea. Reduced 2024 price prospects given new capacity. Lowered Feb23-Apr23 forecast, expecting worst-of-demand trends to manifest at that point in the year. That is a $2/lb forecast in 2023 compared to $2.05-$2.08 this year. Increased Read more
Monthly Forecast – October 2022
Modified cheese forecasts Continued to reduce the block-barrel spread in 2023. Increased 2023 Q2 forward forecast, given stronger demand from Mexico and South Korea. Reduced 2024 price prospects given new capacity. Lowered Feb23-Apr23 forecast, expecting worst-of-demand trends to manifest at that point in the year. That is a $2/lb forecast in 2023 compared to $2.05-$2.08 this year. Increased 2022 and Read more
Weekly forecast update – Sept. 30, 2022
Forecast updates Provided Sept 2022 CME product price averages. Updated Oct-2022 based on spot markets Reduced CME blocks – lifted CME barrels Reversed Q4 block-barrel spread – barrels premium to blocks Expect spread to remain minimal in Q1 23, but block premium should exports slow due to more competition. Increased OCT and NOV 2022 butter price based on higher spot Read more
Weekly forecast update – Sept. 25, 2022
Forecast updates Modest changes to the forecast this week with most updates related to the spot market price adjustments. Some adjustments through Q4 – most returning the forecast to earlier in the month price expectations. Continue to keep the block-barrel spread minimal. It is unlikely to change unless exports slow. Milk Market USDA released the October Advanced Class I milk Read more
Weekly forecast update – Sept. 16, 2022
Forecast updates Modest changes to the forecast this week with most updates related to the spot market price adjustments. Milk Market Milk output is showing small signs of improvement in Europe when there are competing concerns that milk processing and demand could falter this fall. Domestically, the school milk supply lines are refiled, and many reports that milk production is Read more
Weekly forecast update – Sept. 9, 2022
Forecast updates Increased prices for cheese and reduced the block-barrel spread moving forward. At current levels, spot cheese prices could return to $2/lb level by the end of the month. Expect prices could run higher through November. Given the retail slowdown and lower export volumes when cheese reached above $2.20/lb expect that prices will remain below those levels ahead of Read more
Weekly forecast update – Sept. 2, 2022
Forecast updates Increased prices for cheese and reduced the block-barrel spread moving forward. Still expect cheese prices to run above $2/lb one more time this year. It is more likely toward the end of October/November. US cheese prices continue to command a price advantage vs. New Zealand and Europe – that could keep exports moving well into 2023 and may Read more