Monthly Forecast – February 2024

Cheese

1.      Reports suggest that demand is picking up.

2.      Forecast still has prices post-Super Bowl easing for a bit, but not as low as recent prices.

3.      Exports will be vital to improving US cheese prices – anecdotal reports indicate that demand may increase. Mexico will be critical to Cheddar cheese exports and volumes to South Korea, Japan, and Australia.

4.      Forecast expects prices to rise Q2 forward – milk remains tight, which could mean demand rises above supply for a time, resulting in higher prices.

Butter

1.      Cream is reportedly widely available today. Still, buyers are looking to secure sufficient supplies as most have lower butter availability later in the year on lower milk production and more milk moving to cheese.

2.      Forecast expects prices to lift above $3/lb later this year.

3.      Stocks could build as demand may slow in response to higher winter prices. So far, that has not been the case, but demand tends to slow when prices exceed $2.75/lb at the CME.

4.      Higher butter prices may impact ice cream, creamer, and cream cheese demand this year – that could send more cream back to churns.

NDM

1.      Maintained somewhat flat 1H prices and raised 2H price expectations.

2.      Increased prices through 2026. Slower milk production and more milk moving to cheese could limit NDM/SMP. But, less milk output in Mexico extending into South America could lift demand – demand likely fulfilled by the United States.

3.      Short-term domestic demand is causing US prices to rise faster than export prices – that could slow exports if US prices are viewed negatively.

Whey